CRYPTO BRIEF - JUNE 2026
- Jun 29
- 7 min read
The Origin Story. The Hidden Players. The Market Cycle.
Why crypto matters, who is really in this market, and where we sit in the cycle.
Introduction
June 2026 took a different shape. One blog looked inward, tracing Marco's own origin story in crypto. One looked sideways, mapping the full structure of who actually populates this market beyond the visible retail layer. And one looked at the bigger picture entirely: the recurring cycle that governs nearly every bull and bear market this asset class has ever produced. Personal conviction, market structure, and market timing. Three different lenses in the same space.
LOVE!
How It Started
Marco's entry into crypto was not planned. It began with a casual conversation in the midst of the 2017 surge, with an old high school friend then teaching mathematics and computer science at the Normale University of Pisa. What started as a technical discussion about blockchain and digital assets quickly turned into something bigger: full ownership over one's own assets, peer-to-peer transactions without a central authority, and the idea of true financial freedom.
The Moment It Became a Passion
The real turning point came when the conversation moved to decentralisation: nodes spread across the globe, no single entity in control, smart contracts removing the need for intermediaries. For someone shaped by science fiction, from Star Trek to Star Wars, this vision of a decentralised world felt like the manifestation of stories that had always resonated. Crypto felt like more than a financial tool. It felt like the embodiment of ideals he had carried since childhood.
From Curiosity to Obsession
The fascination became an obsession. White papers, essays, conferences, online forums. Every layer of the space, from the technical architecture of blockchain to the philosophical implications of decentralisation, demanded to be understood. The decision to invest in Bitcoin during its first major surge followed naturally. It was a risk, but a deliberate one: the kind that could pay off in more ways than financial gain.
What cemented the commitment was not the technology alone. It was the people. A diverse, passionate, global community united by a shared belief in decentralisation. Developers, investors, and enthusiasts, all part of a movement working toward a more open and accessible financial system.
From Believer to Builder
Toward the end of 2017, Marco partially liquidated his crypto holdings to fund his first venture: a small team built around a software engineer and a marketing specialist. That decision marked the start of a continuous run of ventures in the space that continues today.
"The sky's the limit." In the world of crypto, that sentiment from Captain Picard rings truer than ever.
This story is drawn from Marco's book "What the Hell Are Cryptocurrencies?".
Want to understand crypto from first principles? Marco's book, "What the Hell Are Cryptocurrencies?", breaks down the technology and the philosophy behind it for readers at any level. |
You Think You Know Who's in the Crypto Market. But You Don't.
The Mental Model Is Missing Eighty Percent of the Picture
Most professionals outside crypto can name three or four participants: exchange users, maybe miners, possibly something vague about whales. That model is incomplete. The crypto market is not one market. It is a stack of parallel ecosystems, each with its own logic, its own participants, and its own relationship with visibility.
The Layers, From Most Visible to Least
CEX retail: Millions of individuals trading on regulated, KYC verified exchanges. Highly traceable, with most exchanges automatically sharing data with tax authorities. From a compliance standpoint, this layer is the solved problem.
Whales: Holders large enough to move price. Not a monolith: early adopters, family offices, crypto-native funds. What unites them is patience and opacity. Retail follows. Whales lead.
Market makers: The invisible infrastructure quoting both sides of the order book, capturing the spread, and keeping markets liquid. Many operate across both KYC and non-KYC venues, including offshore exchanges with minimal oversight.
OTC desks: Where the largest trades actually happen, off order books and with no public price impact. The spectrum ranges from well-regulated, bank-affiliated desks to informal brokers operating wherever the rules are whatever both parties agree to.
Miners: The only participants who receive coins with no prior transaction history. Solo mining is now nearly impossible; pools like Foundry USA, AntPool, and F2Pool dominate global hash rate.
DeFi users: Wallet-to-protocol activity with no registration, no KYC, and no conventional counterparty. Transactions are visible on-chain. The humans behind the wallets are not.
P2P and cash traders: The market that precedes everything else. Bank transfers, mobile money, gift cards, and physical cash exchanged directly between two people. In markets with limited banking access or strict currency controls, this is often the primary entry point.
The darknet: The smallest segment by volume, generally below 1% of overall activity, yet the most disproportionately discussed in regulatory and media coverage.
Layer | What It Is | Visibility to Regulators |
CEX Retail | Millions of users, fully KYC'd | High, automatic tax reporting in most countries |
Whales | Large holders who set price direction | Low, moves are visible only after the fact |
Market Makers | Liquidity providers across KYC and non-KYC venues | Medium, broad cross-exchange counterparty exposure |
OTC Desks | Off-exchange block trades for large buyers/sellers | Variable, from bank-affiliated to informal brokers |
Miners | Receive new coins directly from the protocol | Medium, concentrated in major mining pools |
DeFi Users | Wallet-to-protocol activity, no intermediary | Low, on-chain but identity-opaque |
P2P / Cash | Direct trades, bank transfer to physical cash | Very low, largely unobservable |
Darknet | Smallest segment, outsized attention | Very low, reliant on mixers and TOR |
What the Complete Map Actually Tells You
These are not separate categories. They are layers in a single system, each feeding into the next. Miners produce. Whales accumulate. OTC desks move large blocks. Market makers maintain liquidity. Retail trades on exchanges. DeFi and P2P operate outside the traditional perimeter entirely. By the time funds surface at a regulated touchpoint, they have typically already passed through several of these layers. The observable moment is rarely where the interesting activity happened.
The practical question: what layer of this map does your current risk model actually reach?
Is your compliance framework built for the full market, or just the visible part? We help legal, tax, and notarial professionals build risk frameworks that account for the layers that sit beneath the regulated touchpoint, not just the ones that are easy to see. |
Understanding Crypto Market Cycles: Bull, Bear, and Accumulation Phases
The Market Doesn't Move at Random
The crypto market tends to follow recurring macro cycles, usually lasting around three to four years, often anchored around Bitcoin's halving. Within each cycle, a sequence of distinct phases tends to recur, even if timing and intensity vary.
The Bull Market: Three Stages of Rotation
BTC season: The first leg of any bull cycle. Bitcoin dominance rises, often from 40-45% to 55-65%, while altcoins hold flat or bleed against BTC. This is the quality flight moment, usually triggered by a macro catalyst such as an ETF approval, a halving, or a banking crisis.
Tier-1 altcoin season: Once BTC dominance peaks and starts falling, capital rotates into large-cap, high-liquidity altcoins like ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, and AVAX. ETH/BTC breaking out is the canonical confirmation signal. These assets often gain 3 to 10 times from bear market lows.
Tier-2 altcoin season: The most speculative phase. Capital cascades into mid and small-cap tokens, DeFi protocols, gaming tokens, AI coins, meme coins, and recently listed projects. Gains of 10 to 100 times in weeks are possible, with very thin liquidity. This is also where the top is typically set.
The Dive: Five Phases of the Downturn
Distribution top: New highs with progressively weaker momentum, lower volume, and diverging breadth. Smart money quietly sells into retail's FOMO while headlines remain euphoric. This phase can last weeks to months.
The initial drop: A sharp decline, often 25-40% for Bitcoin and 40-70% for altcoins, triggered by a macro shock, regulatory event, hack, or liquidation cascade. The first reaction is disbelief: "this is just a correction."
Dead cat bounce: A convincing relief rally of 20-50%, driven by short covering and oversold conditions. It can last weeks to months, fooling many into buying back at higher prices before the second, worse leg down begins.
Capitulation: The final major leg down. Bitcoin falls 65-70% from peak, altcoins 90-99%. Long-term holders finally sell at a loss, media coverage disappears, and search interest collapses. This is the most psychologically brutal phase and where the real accumulation opportunity begins.
Accumulation: Price stabilises at low levels with minimal volume and no news flow. On-chain, long-term wallets quietly absorb supply while exchange reserves decline. This phase can last 6 to 18 months and is defined by boredom; most retail investors miss the early breakout entirely.
Sideways Markets: The Phase That Hides the Real Action
Sideways markets are the 6 to 18 months of boredom that can appear at either extreme of the cycle. At the bottom, they often precede explosive bull moves. At the top, they often mask slow distribution before a sharp drop. Volume and volatility both compress, retail attention fades, and smart money quietly builds or reduces positions.
Want a structured view of where the market sits right now? We help investors and institutions translate on-chain signals and cycle positioning into practical decision frameworks, without the noise of social media timing calls. |
The Bottom Line
Three different angles on the same market this June. The story of how conviction in this space actually forms. The reality that the visible retail layer is a small fraction of who is genuinely participating. And the recurring rhythm that governs nearly every cycle this asset class has produced so far.
The common thread: understanding crypto requires looking past what is immediately visible, whether that is the headline price, the familiar exchange interface, or the easy narrative. The structure underneath is where the real picture lives.
Published Date: 29/06/2026
About the Author
Marco Beffa
CEO at cryptocompliance.ai
Author of "What The Hell are Cryptocurrencies?" and "The Darkwhale Protocol"
Lecturer on Digital Assets
Radio Broadcaster, Crypto and Blockchain Insights
Legal Disclaimer
This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or any other advice of any kind. It is subject to the Terms of Service, which must be read and accepted, and are available here: https://www.cryptocompliance.ai/terms-of-service.